In this lesson
- go through ETH's whole exchange price history in real data
- see how big the drops were and what came with them
- find out why good news does not guarantee a rise
Who would want to ride a lift that goes up to the twentieth floor, crashes into the basement, climbs to the fortieth and drops back to the ground floor? ETH holders have been riding that lift since 2017. Some got off on a high floor. Others in the basement.
Nine years in one chart#
- ETH (USD)
- Logarithmic axis: equal distance = equal percentage change
The chapters#
| Period | What happened | Price (daily extremes) |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 – Jan 2018 | the ICO frenzy, thousands of new tokens on Ethereum | from 301 USD to 1,440 USD (10 Jan 2018) |
| 2018 | the ICO crash | a 94% fall to 81.79 USD (15 Dec 2018) |
| 2020–2021 | DeFi, NFTs, a big bull market | a record 4,868 USD (10 Nov 2021) |
| 2022 | the LUNA, Celsius and FTX collapses; The Merge in September | an 82% fall to 881.56 USD (18 Jun 2022) |
| 2024–2025 | US spot ETFs, companies buying ETH | a record 4,956.78 USD (24 Aug 2025) |
| 2026 | the market cooled | a 70% fall to 1,505.68 USD (6 Jun 2026) |
End of September 2026: roughly 2,690 USD; on 11 October around 2,530 USD.
What follows from it#
- Drops of 70–94% are a repeated experience for ETH. Three in nine years.
- Good news does not guarantee a rise. The day of The Merge was a technical triumph – and ETH kept falling for three more months. The ETF launch in July 2024 brought no immediate rise either.
- The purchase date matters more than people admit. Whoever bought at the top in November 2021 was still roughly half down in October 2026 – almost five years later.
- The logarithmic scale. On an ordinary chart a rise from 85 to 850 USD would look like a flat line. Yet it is +900%.
The past need not repeat
The fact that ETH has always come back from deep drops does not mean it will again. History shows how big the moves can be – not where the price will go.
Common myths#
- "ETH always returns to its top." So far it has. That describes the past, not a guarantee.
- "After a 70% fall it cannot fall further." In 2018 it was 94%.
- "A technical upgrade = a rising price." Neither The Merge nor the ETFs lifted the price right away.
Summary
- ETH rose to 1,440 USD, fell 94%, rose to 4,868, fell 82%, set a new record (4,957) and fell 70%.
- Drops of about 70% or more are the rule for ETH, not the exception.
- Neither upgrades nor ETFs guaranteed a rise.
- Read charts with big moves on a logarithmic scale.