In this lesson
- find out how closely SOL moves with Bitcoin and Ether
- understand beta: how much SOL amplifies Bitcoin's moves on average
- learn to read the SOL/BTC ratio
SOL has its own story – a fast network, memecoins, ETFs. On a chart, though, it mostly behaves like a dog on a leash: where Bitcoin goes, SOL goes too. It just jumps around more, sometimes runs ahead and sometimes lets itself be dragged.
Year by year#
Daily Binance data from January 2021 to September 2026:
| Year | Correlation with BTC | SOL volatility | BTC volatility | Beta | SOL return | BTC return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 0.40 | 162% | 81% | 0.79 | +11,167% | +60% |
| 2022 | 0.79 | 117% | 64% | 1.46 | −94% | −64% |
| 2023 | 0.61 | 99% | 44% | 1.38 | +920% | +156% |
| 2024 | 0.74 | 82% | 53% | 1.15 | +86% | +121% |
| 2025 | 0.80 | 86% | 42% | 1.65 | −34% | −6% |
| 2026 (to Sep) | 0.88 | 64% | 46% | 1.22 | −5% | −5% |
Volatility is annual, calculated from daily changes. Over the whole period: a correlation of 0.62, SOL volatility 109% against 57% for Bitcoin.
What you read from it:
- Correlation is rising. In 2021 SOL had a life of its own (0.40); in 2026 it moved with Bitcoin more than ever (0.88). Similarly with Ether – 0.88 in 2026.
- SOL swings about twice as much. On 147 days it moved more than 10% in a day, Bitcoin on only 24.
- It does not protect in downturns. Of the 87 days when Bitcoin fell more than 5%, SOL fell on 79 – by 8.3% on average against 7.3% for Bitcoin.
Beta: the amplifier#
The so-called beta tells you how much an asset moves on average when the market moves 1%. SOL's beta to Bitcoin came out at 1.18 over the whole period, and as high as 1.65 in 2025: when Bitcoin fell 1%, SOL fell 1.65% on average. But beta changes from year to year – in 2021 it was below one.
The SOL/BTC ratio#
If you want to know whether SOL did better than Bitcoin, look at the SOL/BTC price ratio. It rises when SOL leads and falls when it lags.
- SOL/BTC
From January 2023 to March 2024 SOL rose more than fourfold against Bitcoin (index 428). Then the trend turned, and in May 2026 the index stood at 156 – SOL had lost more than 60% against Bitcoin from its peak. Even when SOL set a dollar record in January 2025, it was already about a fifth below its peak against Bitcoin.
An altcoin is not diversification
SOL next to Bitcoin in a portfolio does not spread the risk – it adds a bet on the same market with roughly double the swings. In downturns it falls with Bitcoin, and usually more.
Common myths#
- "SOL has its own fundamentals, it is unrelated to Bitcoin." A correlation of 0.6–0.9 in most years says otherwise.
- "SOL went up, so it is doing well." It may have lost against Bitcoin – look at the SOL/BTC ratio.
- "Beta is a fixed number." It changes from year to year, from 0.79 to 1.65.
Summary
- SOL moves ever more closely with Bitcoin: correlation from 0.40 in 2021 to 0.88 in 2026.
- It swings about twice as much and usually falls more than Bitcoin in downturns.
- Beta (1.18 over the whole period) shows how SOL amplifies Bitcoin's moves; it changes over time.
- The SOL/BTC ratio shows whether SOL beats Bitcoin; since March 2024 it has lost ground.